Application of ARIMA and ARIMAX Methods to Predict the Number of Visitors to Hotel XYZ Pekanbaru

Abstract

Predicting the number of visitors to Hotel XYZ is one of the steps that can be taken by the hotel to find out how many visitors will increase in each upcoming holiday season. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of visitors to Hotel XYZ from June 2023 to July 2024 using the ARIMA and ARIMAX comparison methods. The research methodology encompasses problem identification, data collection, data processing, and ARIMA and ARIMAX analysis, which involves testing the parameters (p, d, q) selected based on the ACF and PACF using the AIC Model. Based on the test results, ARIMAX (5, 0, 3) has the lowest AIC, which is 3495.2, followed by ARIMAX (3, 0, 5), which has a slightly higher AIC. The results showed that the ARIMAX (5, 0, 3) model is the most accurate model for predicting data (eg the number of hotel guests, room demand, or income), with an RMSE value of 15.80% and a MAPE of 18.90%. Therefore, research that applies the ARIMAX model can provide real benefits in supporting operational efficiency, resource management, and hotel business strategy, ultimately increasing the competitiveness and profitability of the hotel.